mardi 7 septembre 2010

Winter 2009-2010

This winter has been one of the hardest and longest and coldest and snowiest for a long time.However, there doesn't seem to be any snow in Vancouver for the Winter olympic games which start this weekend.

Such is weather, such is climate.

The fact that this winter is a hemisphere wide event, and the cold and snow has been felt from Vladivostock to Aberdeen, one might ask some questions.

Winter normally is a hemisphere event, but not normally so long,cold or snowy.

Only last yuear we were talking about an exceptional winter, and then this winter comes along and is colder, snowier and longer.

Last winter, in my garden the minimum was a chilly -18°c according to my thermometer, (which isn't inside a Stephanson screen) for one very cold afternoon/evening.

This year , in the same spot, same thermometer, I've seen -13 all day and -10 for a week, i.e not seeing positive temperatures all week!

Ok, its not so scientific, but it sure is cold.

A De Vries cycle (or Suess cycle) is more or less due and perhaps we'll see this, but who would dare predict it! This cycle coumes round evey 210 ish years and is a cooling cycle

this is discussed here

http://www.wsl.ch/staff/jan.esper/publications/Raspopov_2008_PPP.pdf

What's even more worrying is that another cycle, called the Bond cycle is also more or less due.This is also a cooling cycle.This cycle comes around avery 1400ish years.

If the two do happen close to each other, we could well see a cooling.Also worthy of note are the predictions of lower solar activity , which would also have a climatic impact .



We'll have to wait and see!

Winters will perhaps become ' real winters' again.


http://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/paleo/pubs/solanki2004/

http://www.pbs.org/wgbh/warming/stories/


http://www.pubmedcentral.nih.gov/picrender.fcgi?artid=1691926&blobtype=pdf

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