dimanche 5 octobre 2008

Sunspots for the last 10,000 years and more

Above is a Morlet continous wave transformation for sunspots . Another can be seen here http://wattsupwiththat.files.wordpress.com/2008/09/wavelet_ssn.png
Time is read along the horizontal axis, and a time scale is drawn across the top of the image. Frequency is read on the verticle axis. The scale is 2**x months, where is is 1,2,3..9. So 2**7 is 128 months. Amplitude is indicated by color. The basic 11 year Schwabe cycle is clearly indicated by the red ovals bisected by the line for 11 years. I’ve noted the Dalton Minimum, which is clearly different in character than the other cycles — with weaker and longer solar cycles. It is subtle, but you can see the weaker intensity of solar cycles 10-15 compared to solar cycles 16-23 in the weaker color of the earlier cycles. There is clearly enhanced activity, and of longer duration, at the end of the 20th century.
There is also a weaker, but distinct, level of activity at 22 years, the double sunspot of Hale cycle. The last three Hale cycles have been stronger than earlier Hale cycles. There is some indication of a double Hale cycle (~44 years) and at the top of the graph, we’re in Gleissberg cycle territory.
Now, for an interesting observation and speculation, note that at present, which is at the right edge of the chart, from the 11 yr line to the top it is all blue. There is only one other place on the entire chart where we can draw a vertical line from the 11 yr line to the top without it crossing some portion of color other than blue. Can you find it? (It is right at the beginning of Solar Cycle 5, i.e. the Dalton Minimum). Are we watching the beginning of a new 200 year cycle like what began with the Dalton Minimum in the early 1800’s? Obviously, no one knows. But the current transition is certainly unusual, and invites comparison to past transitions.

This is a Morlet continous wave transformation for sunspots for the last
11405 years.
This is the data set used to produce the wavelet.
Solanki, S.K., I.G. Usoskin, B. Kromer, M. Schüssler and J. Beer. 2004. An unusually active Sun during recent decades compared to the previous 11,000 years. Nature, Vol. 431, No. 7012, pp.1084-1087, 28 October 2004.


The diagram above is for the data set here

This data appeared at http://wattsupwiththat.com/2008/09/22/new-cycle-24-sunspot/ and It's thanks to Basil (I only know his tag) that I managed to figure it out. I used the PAST programme to do so.

What does it show? Time is on the Horizontal axis and intensity on the vertical one. Well the ice age looks good.... Nice and blue. (between 240 and 600?) Compare it to The Dalton minimum which is clearly visible on the top graph.

Comments please?

mercredi 1 octobre 2008


This is a subject I'll freely admit to knowing absolutely knothing about.

It doesn't seem fair for governments to pay for the mistakes or traders.When people invest, they take the risk of winning or loosing.When I lose on the horse, I know it was a risk. It's the same with stocks and shares.They go up or down, and a certain profit or 15% return is, frankly, unreal. Investors need to be reminded that an investment may not give a return.
I don't know what to do about the current financial crisis. Perhaps a 'world tax' of ten percent needs to raised on all those who choose to live in one country per month, a different one every month to avoid taxes, or those who try to avoid tax.
No one likes to pay tax, but it is a normal thing to do. So I say to those who try to avoid taxes, beware, as governments will try to get what they think they are owed.

I'm not sure 700 billion dollars is enough and it is perhaps throwing good money after bad.I had the thought yesterday that Liverpool fc are sponsered by the US government and Newcastle united by the British government and that can't be a good use of taxation.

One year ago there was ten times as much money on the global markets than actually existed. it was a problem waiting to happen due to lack of liquidity and if it gets better short term, long term is not so sure . Unemployment is the spectre that haunts us, and recession is its wailing banshee, and inflation its ball and chains.

The show is up and its time now to find a new financial paradigm as this one is over.

A mixed social economy is the way forward.

I read about "trillions of dollars" and if you could count 1 dollar per second, it would take you over 3800 years to count a trillion.
If you laid one dollar bills end to end, you could make a chain that stretches from earth to the moon and back again 200 times before you ran out of dollar bills! One trillion dollars would stretch nearly from the earth to the sun. It would take a military jet flying at the speed of sound, reeling out a roll of dollar bills behind it, 14 years before it reeled out one trillion dollar bills.

The U.S. Federal Government collected $2,568 billion in fiscal year 2007, while spending $2,730 billion, generating a total deficit of $162 billion.
If america agrees, not only would the legislation increase the national debt to $11.3 trillion, it would leave one man in charge with absolutely no oversight.

By the way, private American debt is an amazing 37 Trillion.

Households in the UK owe a total of £1.4 trillion to banks and building societies. More than £225 billion has been piled on to credit cards and personal loans while the remainder has been spent on bricks and mortar, the Bank of England says. Even the start of the credit crunch last year was not enough to stem the credit binge. Credit card borrowing rose by 1.25 per cent last year, while mortgage borrowing rose 10.8 per cent, figures from Experian, the credit reference agency, show. Insolvences hit a high and things don't look like they will get better any time soon.

This of course was all shown around 2005

things look bad http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/business/7644238.stm

That shows 700 billion compared with the 14 thousand billion us gdp.

By the way, where is plan "b"?