This blog is a comment on
http://wattsupwiththat.com/2010/12/20/a-dalton-minimum-repeat-is-shaping-up/#more-29779, todays turn up from Watts up with that.
Well, if you really want to compare with the Dalton minimum, isn't it really essential to use data from that period? And compare that data set with the current one? Yet Archibald ends with data sets ranging from 1976, 1966,1930,2006 and then tries to connect it to 1776-1820 ish. Without using and raw data from 1776-1820 other than sunspot observations. Am I the only one who thinks this a bit strange?
What's needed is a flux measure for those dates in the Dalton or at worst a proxy from ice core data.Then you can compare.
Go back to the data and try again before making predictions based on what at best could be described as a dodgy data set.
This kind of science really gets me because I think that Archibald may have a valid point but it's rather blunted because the scientific argument isn't cutting enough, if you'll excuse the mixed metaphore.
Look at this data set, it goes back 11,000 years, until 50 years before now.
ftp://ftp.ncdc.noaa.gov/pub/data/paleo/climate_forcing/solar_variability/solanki2004-ssn.txt
Then add the observations made from 1955 until 2010 (using raw data )and then , perhaps then you'll get an interesting graph. Perhaps one could comment that proxies aren't as reliable as the 10,7 flux raw data, but it's the best we've got.And that mixing the two data sets is also dodgy. But hey,lets do it any way.
look here
http://cc.oulu.fi/%7Eusoskin/personal/nature02995.pdf
or here
http://www.mps.mpg.de/dokumente/publikationen/solanki/j215.pdf
Run the data through PAST http://www.nhm.uio.no/norges/past/download.html
and paste your graph and hey presto, then, perhaps then you've got data you can compare. Then you could look for similarities with the rider 'the past doesn't guarantee the present'
Basically the current argument runs like 'its a Dalton rerun because I say so, because I predicted it'( based on data you can't take seriously), and that's just not good enough.
You also forget that most of the Dalton cooling was volcanic, go check the sulphate core records (http://climate.envsci.rutgers.edu/IVI2/) and compare them for the time span you want to consider . It's not enough to wag your finger and say 'Ah but solar minimum causes volcanic eruptions because there is a correlation'. Go prove it.Correlation doesn't mean cause.
I spend my days telling students how important it is to respect the scientific method, but sometimes when I see this kind of argument, it just looks like pseudoscience. Intreresting, though provoking, bloggable ,but ultimatly dismissable because it lacks vigour.
There's no null hypothesis, no paper, no findings, no evidence, no method.
Depressingly ,everything here can and will be dismissed, and really that's a shame because we really need to keep an open mind.
lundi 20 décembre 2010
mercredi 13 octobre 2010
Coldest Winter for 1000 years
Last winter, 2009-2010 was the coldest for 30 years, but the coming winter will make that look like a walk in the park
Why?
Well several reasons.The first that my prediction of a de Vries event http://dreamofthought.blogspot.com/2010/09/winter-2009-2010.html (on this very blog!) looks like it will come true and the second is that the gulf stream was damaged buy the GOM disaster and is slowing down.
The third is that a Bond event is also due, and that will happen over the next five to twenty years.
the cycles all join up.(http://chiefio.wordpress.com/2009/04/06/bond-event-zero/)
The next problem is the vast volcanic activity seen in 2010 which adds up to lots of aerosols in the atmosphere, and we've not seen the end of the volcanic activity, with many big volcanoes seemingly ramping up. If we get a big eruption then a volcanic winter could well be a possibility.
The other big factor is the Sun which is very quiet and unusually so.This is a big problem as its the Sun which modulates our climate to the largests extent and not Carbon dioxide.
the transition will be quick now, and we'll move towards perhaps decades of hot, dry short winters and cold, windy bitter long winters. Food shortages, famine, flooding,etc.
Climate changes quickly, as discussed here
http://geoweb.princeton.edu/people/sigman/paperpdfs/Brauer08.pdf
time to order a non grid warming solution.
Why?
Well several reasons.The first that my prediction of a de Vries event http://dreamofthought.blogspot.com/2010/09/winter-2009-2010.html (on this very blog!) looks like it will come true and the second is that the gulf stream was damaged buy the GOM disaster and is slowing down.
The third is that a Bond event is also due, and that will happen over the next five to twenty years.
the cycles all join up.(http://chiefio.wordpress.com/2009/04/06/bond-event-zero/)
The next problem is the vast volcanic activity seen in 2010 which adds up to lots of aerosols in the atmosphere, and we've not seen the end of the volcanic activity, with many big volcanoes seemingly ramping up. If we get a big eruption then a volcanic winter could well be a possibility.
The other big factor is the Sun which is very quiet and unusually so.This is a big problem as its the Sun which modulates our climate to the largests extent and not Carbon dioxide.
the transition will be quick now, and we'll move towards perhaps decades of hot, dry short winters and cold, windy bitter long winters. Food shortages, famine, flooding,etc.
Climate changes quickly, as discussed here
http://geoweb.princeton.edu/people/sigman/paperpdfs/Brauer08.pdf
time to order a non grid warming solution.
mercredi 8 septembre 2010
haitian thoughts
I recently visited this country to adopt a little boy with my wife and we noted that misery had a name and the name was Haiti. Before the earthquake which struck on the 13th, the country and its people already had their backs to the wall. Water and electricity and food were luxury products. I saw shanty towns and roads like ravines, buildings damaged from four hurricanes.After the quake, the unimaginable becomes true. A million people live in Port au prince and it's estimated that 100 thousand are dead from the earthquake alone.Now there is no clean water and typhus, cholera and other water borne diseases such as gastroenteritis and diarrhea will strike and an already weak population. More will die in the aftermath of this disaster than directly.
1 million people are now homeless in the island. They had little before, now they have literally nothing. 70 % plus unemployment, 76% survive on less than 2 dollars per day US.That was before. even the presidential palace in all its splendor is a pile of rubble.Almost all multi story building are down. We have friends who got the last plane out before the quake. Lucky them.
The hospital has collapsed, there is no water or electricity, no lifting equipment , no fire brigade or ambulance, no doctors or medicine,no surgeons or nurses, no food, no toilet facilities,people lay with terrible injuries and die.In the streets.in the open air.They die like dogs.
I managed to contact the crèche. All the children are thank god, well. but the building has disappeared into rubble.The quake struck just after their afternoon nap and thank God for that, .Some crèches are just disaster zones, full of dead or dying children.
What can you do? Give your money/time/equipment/spare clothes/bricks and mortar to a reputable cause, such as the red cross or medicines sans frontiers.
The immediate need is survival. After they need to rebuild, better and with pride.Teach them how. Help them now.
Evry dollar saves a life. Give what you can, and remember. Perhaps the quake will wake up people to the plight of Haiti. Its a shame it took such a cost, such a price for people to see.. A beautiful country a beautiful people. Perhaps they can start from nothing.But what a cost.What a price.
imagine your city, and a disaster that kills 10% of the population. And makes many many more homeless.
1 million live in port au prince and 100 thousand are dead, and probably 100,00 more will die from the disease and after the quake. 500 thousand may be homeless.They need your help.
Already people are looting and this has to stop.The UN has now to send in more troops, to help control a dire situation.We need to get equipment there as quickly as possible.There can be no strings attached and no under the table deals.The time is now for a new Haiti.
here is a link to help those who can give
http://thelede.blogs.nytimes.com/2010/01/13/haiti-disaster-relief-how-to-contribute/
There are many charities here, give and give and give. Remember, you are rich in compaarison to them. I've given what I can and next month I'll give more.
This disaster won't stop now.
Our prayer.
We pray for the Haitian people, and for those who have been touched by this disaster, for those who have lost loved ones, or have no news, we pray to our God and ask for his hand. We pray that people will be generous and touched.We pray that change starts with people now.
Do the same with your God(s) please
Prayers aren't enough. Imagine the worst and multiply it by ten.
The lost elephant
The lost Elephant. A story for children. By Richard Jenkins
Once upon a time there was an elephant. His name was...
In fact he didn't know his name!This was because he was The Lost Elephant
Where he lived, in the jungle, he was contented,but he had a lot of questions.The other elephants he saw didn't speak his language, or they didn't know it.
So he began to feel sad.
Poor elephant.
One day, he went to find the answers.
On the way, there were many scary trees, frightening and strange.
Sometimes he was afraid, but he was a brave elephant, and very curious too.
Even when he thought that he could see monsters or nasties, he continued, looking for himself.
He wasn't too scared because he was big and strong, and he could make a lot of noise with his trunk.This gave him comfort. All the birds in the trees flew away whenever he trumpeted, and this made him laugh.
One day a bird asked him "why do you make such a noise?"
"We are kind and we can show you the way to get out of the forest."
The elephant thought about this.
He had made the noise because he was scared. If he followed te birds,he could get out of the forest. Perhaps he could find his name, or even his family.
So he explained to the birds and said he was sorry.The birds showed him the way to the savannah.He had found some new friends.
Once he was outside of the forest, the elephant felt much better. He thanked the birds by singing, and the birds called him 'Softly' because his song was so softly sung.
The elephant had a name! Softly! and he had some friends too.
Softly was a bit lost , but happily he was in the savannah. He hid in the long grass and waited.Suddenly, he saw another elephant, a very beautiful elephant.Together, they continued along the path.
Finally, he had a name, and a family and some friends!he had found out some of the answers and found some of himself too. Together with the birds, they went to find their destinies.
THE END
mardi 7 septembre 2010
The crab and the tide
The crab and the tide. A story for children. By Richard Jenkins
Once there was a crab who lived on a sandy beach.
The beach was nice and the crab liked his patch of the beach.
The crab lived by eating small creatures and sea weed, which he found by scuttling around his patch
The crab could see the ocean from the beach, and every day when the tide came in, the crab would paddle and wash, splash and play. He never ventured into the deep water as he didn't know if he could swim, or how far he could swim, or even how big the ocean was.
Every now and then, a very big tide , called a spring tide, would come in and leave debris, flotsam and jetsum would appear on the sea and on the beach.
The crab would explore the new treasures.
The tide would also be small from time to time, a neap tide.The crab would go up and down the beach, like a yo-yo.
One day, a very big tide came and the crab had nowhere to go, so big was the tide.
He had to try to swim in the deep sea. He found that after a bit of practice and some scary moments that he could swim quite well, and even very well after more practice.It was scary and tiring, but he managed to swim until he found a big rock.
He climbed up and rested and pondered. All along he could swim, and even if he still didn't know how big the ocean was, he had found a new belief and a new skill.
The crab was happy, but careful. He swam back to the beach and carried on living amongst the sand and off what the sea brought.
Every now and then, the crab would go exploring, but he always prepared himself and he never went too far. The ocean was big and dangerous, and the beach was safe. The crab liked the thrill of the ocean and the safety of the beach.
The crab lived out the rest of his days like this. He never did find how big the ocean was, but at least he explored it.
The end
Horizontal writing
Can we see what we do, or do we just chase gold ?
Comfy in our little zone, or do we see the cold ?
Watching death around our patch, like some weird cartoon ;
Hoping that it doesn’t come, at least not very soon.
Miles away from agony, until it hits the screen.
Then only for a moment, then we’ve overseen.
Our minds are touched, but then we’re bored,
Or scared and so we zap the ghastly gore.
Armchair witnesses of the world, aloof from reality
All that’s left to understand the answer is just ourselves maybe
Untroubled by the pain , we’re far away, but TV close.
Internet connected, a click away, to post ideas online
The world’s an expert , shed a tear, spread some fear,
« It’s terrible », « don’t you know » « we’re powerless »
But change starts internally, not government or policy
I watch the smoke from chimney stacks
Its hot cloud waft of wasted heat
Would fill the pens of a thousand hacks
And almost never fill the sheet
They drift up , then left, then right,then back
Which way to go, the wind decides
Just like us, the clouds they lack
Any substance and all the facts
Where we go, and what we say
Corporations organise governments thus
We don’t decide our life each day
Democracy is just passive lush
We have ,no plans, no vision , no belief nor ideas ,
Just make a profit ,make a margin
People don’t matter,or countries, that’s clear ?
Got to cross the line first if you want to win.
Throw them to the wolves or drag
Ideas to divert them from the scent
Tell them that the debate is deep
Keep them numb and well meant
Gaze into the belly-button,gaze into the hole
And all you’ll see is fluff,fluff,fluff
Questions empty with meaning and ideas stole
Away from keepers then twisted so enough
That in the false light of the media they seem so beautiful
But on closer inspection they are just shallow
Imagination has it’s boundary, fearful
Ideas already proven empty and hollow
Come back again to spoil our route
The reason forgotten in the thrust
Of communication when we are mute
And policies which are just unjust
The pathway is chosen to our minds
By companies whose choice is cost
Price but not as the consequence unwinds
And the rest is sacrificed to frost
So in the end we wait for change-but passive us
Act now and take control of you
Destiny’s path is self made stuff
Show the people what to do.
Crawl through all the thick and dross
Fight the path to freedom’s truth
Lips are dry from bitter dust
And hopes are spent from wasted youth
We don’t question what we buy
Nor its production place today
The lowest wages question why ?
The little children’s bleeding hands
Made in somewhere else today
The cost of production here’s to high
In low cost countries profits pay
With low aspirations, respect will die
The mystery is why such guiltless tranquillity
The ticking clock of all our lives
The effortless switch of history
The chance to spin eternal lies
« We want to win the war » they said
But in its wake there was the blood
And every drop was shyly shed
And every hope was in the mud
They came back home draped in a flag
Silently they passed through streets of shame
No really gave a fag
And no-one really took the blame
They fought for what ? For History’s fame ?
The pages of the books repeat
All that’s left is all that remains
Forgotten again, till death they meet.
Soldiers, wasted, like school boy’s games
Lined up inside the playground of their minds
And each battalion are just toys
And all the lives are just white lines.
Crosses on the empty fields
With only sorrow for a bride
Wage war against the clinging weeds
When tomorrow claims its pride
We fight ourselves with bitter breath
And cut our very souls with spite
When into battle our shields,our wealth
Go avidly , the cause of might
Victims of ourselves we are
The crumbled leaves in debris town
The hunger of the innocent by far
Was caused by greed’s renown
They pray and hope for peace inside
Tranquil temples of their minds
Deaf to begging’s desperate tides
Blind to reality’s simple signs
We want peace ?We want war ?
We want change ?We want the same ?
We want what ?Just more and more ?
We want calm ?We want shame ?
We need to step back and t say
Where the line lies in the sand
From being free and giving way
To take up responsibility’s stand
Fight no more ! Tire ye not !
Against aggression fear and pain
The finger slips and not a jot
Of difference there was to gain
Empty gestures in the end
They joined up and knew the price
Back in boxes, empty hands
Empty bodies , freedom’s dice
So we plan for another way
But naive are those who think it so
Doomed to greed, to war, to say
The same message spat from long ago
Larkin’s man is alive and well
With misery in every bowl
Pass around famine’s gruel
Hand on the pain, remove the soul
Throw the dust back to the earth
And give back pain and helplessness
Don’t expect any love or truth
From lips blistered by forgetfulness
The soldiers path is cracked and dry
The battle has been fought and lost
The flags bare and tattered lie
The bodies broken count the cost
All youth is doomed, its anthem sung
Cut down as poplars in Hopkin’s wake
War is lost, the game begun
Stuttering steps , which road to take ?
On paper full of promises
The signatures were scratched
But signed with pens and not with hearts
The charter was half hatched
Into dry dust, forgotten there
In some backwater of a place
Where no one remembers where
Forgotten, lost without a trace
Administration’s machine it turns
The laws like sausages produced
The taste perhaps, for it some yearn ?
But listen to the instrument’s sound
They play what tune ?What sound is that ?
I’ve heard it somewhere else I’m sure
The public though,sleeps like a cat
And History was ‘just before’
We change and change and change again
We haven’t any clue
What medicine to take today ?
Or shall we sniff some glue ?
Like hamsters in our little cage
We run around the wheel
Watching life’s empty page
While eating the last meal.
Children’s eyes, desiring seek
A meal to calm the gnawing pain
Every minute of every week
The children ask « What’s to gain ? »
We seek revenge for past wrongs
Passed on to us by long dead foes
Holding the hate for too long
It burns us with its fiery coals
Burn up, burn out, burn wide our hate
Burn deep, burn deep inside
The flames around every heart
Are pumped by bellows wide.
Reasons to kill someone, today will be supplied
Like some strange instruction delivered in the night
The meanings clear, just take a look inside
Join up the screws, and bolts and join the fight.
When terrorists hate so much
They kill themselves to kill us
With breast implants full of death
The breast gives life, not sour milk
What war we fight is for us to chose
The war against ourselves
To change our lives and others too
The future on it depends
There isn’t any hope today
Give up and go to bed
In your dreams the truth is said
But in the light we lose the way
Enough ! Enough ! There isn't more.
I haven’t any strength
To go to battle or to war
Or to fix the fence
What dreams are these ? Deep down inside
Nothing ever grows
Except futility’s poison pool besides
Hoplessness’ claws.
Comfy in our little zone, or do we see the cold ?
Watching death around our patch, like some weird cartoon ;
Hoping that it doesn’t come, at least not very soon.
Miles away from agony, until it hits the screen.
Then only for a moment, then we’ve overseen.
Our minds are touched, but then we’re bored,
Or scared and so we zap the ghastly gore.
Armchair witnesses of the world, aloof from reality
All that’s left to understand the answer is just ourselves maybe
Untroubled by the pain , we’re far away, but TV close.
Internet connected, a click away, to post ideas online
The world’s an expert , shed a tear, spread some fear,
« It’s terrible », « don’t you know » « we’re powerless »
But change starts internally, not government or policy
I watch the smoke from chimney stacks
Its hot cloud waft of wasted heat
Would fill the pens of a thousand hacks
And almost never fill the sheet
They drift up , then left, then right,then back
Which way to go, the wind decides
Just like us, the clouds they lack
Any substance and all the facts
Where we go, and what we say
Corporations organise governments thus
We don’t decide our life each day
Democracy is just passive lush
We have ,no plans, no vision , no belief nor ideas ,
Just make a profit ,make a margin
People don’t matter,or countries, that’s clear ?
Got to cross the line first if you want to win.
Throw them to the wolves or drag
Ideas to divert them from the scent
Tell them that the debate is deep
Keep them numb and well meant
Gaze into the belly-button,gaze into the hole
And all you’ll see is fluff,fluff,fluff
Questions empty with meaning and ideas stole
Away from keepers then twisted so enough
That in the false light of the media they seem so beautiful
But on closer inspection they are just shallow
Imagination has it’s boundary, fearful
Ideas already proven empty and hollow
Come back again to spoil our route
The reason forgotten in the thrust
Of communication when we are mute
And policies which are just unjust
The pathway is chosen to our minds
By companies whose choice is cost
Price but not as the consequence unwinds
And the rest is sacrificed to frost
So in the end we wait for change-but passive us
Act now and take control of you
Destiny’s path is self made stuff
Show the people what to do.
Crawl through all the thick and dross
Fight the path to freedom’s truth
Lips are dry from bitter dust
And hopes are spent from wasted youth
We don’t question what we buy
Nor its production place today
The lowest wages question why ?
The little children’s bleeding hands
Made in somewhere else today
The cost of production here’s to high
In low cost countries profits pay
With low aspirations, respect will die
The mystery is why such guiltless tranquillity
The ticking clock of all our lives
The effortless switch of history
The chance to spin eternal lies
« We want to win the war » they said
But in its wake there was the blood
And every drop was shyly shed
And every hope was in the mud
They came back home draped in a flag
Silently they passed through streets of shame
No really gave a fag
And no-one really took the blame
They fought for what ? For History’s fame ?
The pages of the books repeat
All that’s left is all that remains
Forgotten again, till death they meet.
Soldiers, wasted, like school boy’s games
Lined up inside the playground of their minds
And each battalion are just toys
And all the lives are just white lines.
Crosses on the empty fields
With only sorrow for a bride
Wage war against the clinging weeds
When tomorrow claims its pride
We fight ourselves with bitter breath
And cut our very souls with spite
When into battle our shields,our wealth
Go avidly , the cause of might
Victims of ourselves we are
The crumbled leaves in debris town
The hunger of the innocent by far
Was caused by greed’s renown
They pray and hope for peace inside
Tranquil temples of their minds
Deaf to begging’s desperate tides
Blind to reality’s simple signs
We want peace ?We want war ?
We want change ?We want the same ?
We want what ?Just more and more ?
We want calm ?We want shame ?
We need to step back and t say
Where the line lies in the sand
From being free and giving way
To take up responsibility’s stand
Fight no more ! Tire ye not !
Against aggression fear and pain
The finger slips and not a jot
Of difference there was to gain
Empty gestures in the end
They joined up and knew the price
Back in boxes, empty hands
Empty bodies , freedom’s dice
So we plan for another way
But naive are those who think it so
Doomed to greed, to war, to say
The same message spat from long ago
Larkin’s man is alive and well
With misery in every bowl
Pass around famine’s gruel
Hand on the pain, remove the soul
Throw the dust back to the earth
And give back pain and helplessness
Don’t expect any love or truth
From lips blistered by forgetfulness
The soldiers path is cracked and dry
The battle has been fought and lost
The flags bare and tattered lie
The bodies broken count the cost
All youth is doomed, its anthem sung
Cut down as poplars in Hopkin’s wake
War is lost, the game begun
Stuttering steps , which road to take ?
On paper full of promises
The signatures were scratched
But signed with pens and not with hearts
The charter was half hatched
Into dry dust, forgotten there
In some backwater of a place
Where no one remembers where
Forgotten, lost without a trace
Administration’s machine it turns
The laws like sausages produced
The taste perhaps, for it some yearn ?
But listen to the instrument’s sound
They play what tune ?What sound is that ?
I’ve heard it somewhere else I’m sure
The public though,sleeps like a cat
And History was ‘just before’
We change and change and change again
We haven’t any clue
What medicine to take today ?
Or shall we sniff some glue ?
Like hamsters in our little cage
We run around the wheel
Watching life’s empty page
While eating the last meal.
Children’s eyes, desiring seek
A meal to calm the gnawing pain
Every minute of every week
The children ask « What’s to gain ? »
We seek revenge for past wrongs
Passed on to us by long dead foes
Holding the hate for too long
It burns us with its fiery coals
Burn up, burn out, burn wide our hate
Burn deep, burn deep inside
The flames around every heart
Are pumped by bellows wide.
Reasons to kill someone, today will be supplied
Like some strange instruction delivered in the night
The meanings clear, just take a look inside
Join up the screws, and bolts and join the fight.
When terrorists hate so much
They kill themselves to kill us
With breast implants full of death
The breast gives life, not sour milk
What war we fight is for us to chose
The war against ourselves
To change our lives and others too
The future on it depends
There isn’t any hope today
Give up and go to bed
In your dreams the truth is said
But in the light we lose the way
Enough ! Enough ! There isn't more.
I haven’t any strength
To go to battle or to war
Or to fix the fence
What dreams are these ? Deep down inside
Nothing ever grows
Except futility’s poison pool besides
Hoplessness’ claws.
Winter 2009-2010
This winter has been one of the hardest and longest and coldest and snowiest for a long time.However, there doesn't seem to be any snow in Vancouver for the Winter olympic games which start this weekend.
Such is weather, such is climate.
The fact that this winter is a hemisphere wide event, and the cold and snow has been felt from Vladivostock to Aberdeen, one might ask some questions.
Winter normally is a hemisphere event, but not normally so long,cold or snowy.
Only last yuear we were talking about an exceptional winter, and then this winter comes along and is colder, snowier and longer.
Last winter, in my garden the minimum was a chilly -18°c according to my thermometer, (which isn't inside a Stephanson screen) for one very cold afternoon/evening.
This year , in the same spot, same thermometer, I've seen -13 all day and -10 for a week, i.e not seeing positive temperatures all week!
Ok, its not so scientific, but it sure is cold.
A De Vries cycle (or Suess cycle) is more or less due and perhaps we'll see this, but who would dare predict it! This cycle coumes round evey 210 ish years and is a cooling cycle
this is discussed here
http://www.wsl.ch/staff/jan.esper/publications/Raspopov_2008_PPP.pdf
What's even more worrying is that another cycle, called the Bond cycle is also more or less due.This is also a cooling cycle.This cycle comes around avery 1400ish years.
If the two do happen close to each other, we could well see a cooling.Also worthy of note are the predictions of lower solar activity , which would also have a climatic impact .
We'll have to wait and see!
Winters will perhaps become ' real winters' again.
http://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/paleo/pubs/solanki2004/
http://www.pbs.org/wgbh/warming/stories/
http://www.pubmedcentral.nih.gov/picrender.fcgi?artid=1691926&blobtype=pdf
Such is weather, such is climate.
The fact that this winter is a hemisphere wide event, and the cold and snow has been felt from Vladivostock to Aberdeen, one might ask some questions.
Winter normally is a hemisphere event, but not normally so long,cold or snowy.
Only last yuear we were talking about an exceptional winter, and then this winter comes along and is colder, snowier and longer.
Last winter, in my garden the minimum was a chilly -18°c according to my thermometer, (which isn't inside a Stephanson screen) for one very cold afternoon/evening.
This year , in the same spot, same thermometer, I've seen -13 all day and -10 for a week, i.e not seeing positive temperatures all week!
Ok, its not so scientific, but it sure is cold.
A De Vries cycle (or Suess cycle) is more or less due and perhaps we'll see this, but who would dare predict it! This cycle coumes round evey 210 ish years and is a cooling cycle
this is discussed here
http://www.wsl.ch/staff/jan.esper/publications/Raspopov_2008_PPP.pdf
What's even more worrying is that another cycle, called the Bond cycle is also more or less due.This is also a cooling cycle.This cycle comes around avery 1400ish years.
If the two do happen close to each other, we could well see a cooling.Also worthy of note are the predictions of lower solar activity , which would also have a climatic impact .
We'll have to wait and see!
Winters will perhaps become ' real winters' again.
http://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/paleo/pubs/solanki2004/
http://www.pbs.org/wgbh/warming/stories/
http://www.pubmedcentral.nih.gov/picrender.fcgi?artid=1691926&blobtype=pdf
techtonic activity 2010
Although this year seems to be an average year for earthquakes, they do seem to be large and frequent.
I'm a bit worried about the swarm under Yellowstone and the recent quake at lake Toba, both of which are supervolcanoes.
If they go off, it's bad news.That and the fissure in Iceland, which produces lots of florine salts, which are toxic. Long silent volcanoes produce the most catastrophic eruptions, so look at Germany and France too.
In a solar minimum, techtonic activity does increase.
I'll keep a look out for new activity around the next full moon.
I'm a bit worried about the swarm under Yellowstone and the recent quake at lake Toba, both of which are supervolcanoes.
If they go off, it's bad news.That and the fissure in Iceland, which produces lots of florine salts, which are toxic. Long silent volcanoes produce the most catastrophic eruptions, so look at Germany and France too.
In a solar minimum, techtonic activity does increase.
I'll keep a look out for new activity around the next full moon.
What odds "the big one" in the USA?
update
Well, so far this year there have been more than average volcanic eruptions and earthquakes, but the full moon a few days ago didn't produce any major events
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