vendredi 5 septembre 2008

Towards a new Maunder minimum, Dalton minimum or just the end of cycle 23?

I was interested in solar cycles as I thought there may be a link between solar activity and political unrest. I 've been watching the Sun for a while now, and I noticed no sunspots on the sun for a month. Why is the sun so quiet? Well, I'm far from being an expert on the subject and so I did some reading on the net.

What is the Maunder minimum? (wiki bulls**t??)

I found a similar blog here
and here

Indeed, very interesting. The result? Icecap growth in the Artic (at a time when Global warming is supposed to be shrinking the ice cap.

The results of a Maunder minimum?

My theory about political unrest?

However, pass a big pinch of salt because

Predicts a recession in 2006 and it's 2008 and we didn't have a recession then , but it looks almost certain now.

Solar cycle 24 officially started, with a big bang ending solar cycle 23, but it seems solar cycle 23 has come back, like a bad penny.

Nasa say its not something unusual,

And I'll have to admit while trawling the internet I came across all kinds of claims, from 'the Sun's nuclear fuel is running out and it will expand' to 'A new Maunder minimum is certain' (it probably is, but certain when?)

So whats happening?
Well in France, we've had cold and wet summers 2007 and 2008 and if one looks at the data for sunshine hours a peak can be noted in 2005/2006 with a lot less hours this and last year(source meteo France click on and click on
ensoleillement) and the last ten years figures for Rennes show this

2008 thus far 1276 (hours of sunshine)
2007 1709
2006 1748
2005 1842
2004 1741
2003 2007(year of heat wave)
2002 1655
2001 1736
2000 1552
1999 1561

This shows an increase from 1999 to 2001, a blip , an increase,a decrease, a blip in fact, it shows not much...

Is the rainfall due to the volcanic eruption earlier this year in Chile?

Are we heading for Eighteen hundreed and froze to death version 2?
If the sun doesn't produce a spot sometime soon, I think a minimum could be possible.
My prediction?
A cold winter (Really, amazing, winters are usually hot :))

In 1963, the sea froze in northern europe, and the Loire froze at Ancenis

My guess? Colder than that, and then some. or not. Interstingly, cycle 19 ended in 64

Predctions for the future show that the future is grim(don't they always:))

and thats from Nasa.

or is it grim?

here "The scientists expect the cycle to begin in late 2007 or early 2008, which is about 6 to 12 months later than a cycle would normally start"
And back to wiki again

More ideas here

and for the history of it all

Is global warming a myth? Well , human activity is having an effect on the climate, thats sure, but the Sun probably has an effect too.

I may or may not agree with the views expressed in the links in this blog.

How does the sun affect human behavoir?

Is the sun broken? Is this the Gore minimum?

Now I know why we used to worship the sun.

Is this all internet 'g force' or is it real?
What's your opinion?

As for me I think global warming and global cooling both occur, but I don't know why (man?earth's rotation? too many pies? you tell me!)

It's truly amazing the stuff you find on the internet:)

Update (16:08:08) still no sunspots since 20th July and counting. Already Dr David Hathaway from NASA has changed his ideas on the upcoming solar cycle (and he's the expert). Scientists now predict sunspots could dissapear altogether in 2015.... of course all this panic started way back here
The sun's been quiet for a long time. I wonder what the link between war and solar cycles is? Another interesting thought?
it looks increasingly likely we will have a few cld winters.

This is science at its best. Not dogma, but argument.

Even better is this Which predicts a volcanic eruption..... Sulphate aerosol veils and here comes the 'Volcanic winter' In fact, solar minimums can cause increased volcanic activity.

The amont of CO2 produced by man probably did heat up the world, but the sun's cylce will also affect us, as will volcanoes and other natural disasters.


UPDATE New sunspot seen today, 22nd September with reversed polarity. looks like its the start of a new solar cycle as it at a high latitude. Ice? What ice age.... Watch this space....

Update 2011
The sun is still fairly slowly coming back to life.Sunspots and solar activity are low , and the sun stillhas problems coming out of the solar slump.The sun slowly comes back to life with flux predictions around 80 proved wrong, as it it now stands at around 100 and will continue to rise.

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