Dream of thought

Welcome to the post democratic society

2012-01-02T03:07:00.000-08:00

Welcome to the post democratic society.
We live in a post democratic society. Politicians have very few powers today especially within Europe, and especially at a national level. This may seem counter intuitive, but think about it. National leaders within Europe have to have one ear or eye on the markets, the great gods who decide on the fate of national debts and national growth, and another on the latest directive to come from Europe and its parliament.
democracy was the idea that the common people had a vote and a say , that they could influence political matters. this is still true, but the leaders they elect have programmes so similar , or basically the same, with a few presentational differences that the reality of choice or indeed change is an illusion.
In the past the voter would either vote for who they thought was best for the country, or probably more realistically, who they thought was best for them. Today politics within Europe has been reduced to limited choices because of the power of markets, agencies that note national debt and a dogmatic belief that the market knows best, when the market just pushes the price until the bubble bursts.
National debts within the western world have run into trillions, and we're looking at generation of repayment, via taxes and a limited public service. people's health, and access to justice,retirement and basic services such as schools, police,libraries will be in jeopardy or privatized, become a commodity with a price; indeed, if we follow the dogma of the market everything is a commodity with a price, all the way to human life.
We watch whilst the North of Africa rejects their decades of abuse, forgetting that this could well happen within our own societies.The society we built within Europe post war was designed to protect and to nourish, with a health care system and public services to be proud of.However, red tape, corruption and stagnation have eroded these pillars and politicians have seized the opportunity of pointing out their expense rather that that of pointing out their success and comparing the cost of not having these systems in place.
2012 may be the year of elections, in the USA, and France, and indeed other countries around the world, some expected, some not. above all its a chance for us to decide if we really think that the beast called the market decides our lives for us, or, if we are adult and mature enough to take control and responsibility by rejecting this dogma. Human life has a value, but not a financial one; We must reject the push button philosophy and question and create new ideas.

2011-09-12T06:36:00.000-07:00

Thoughts on Taxation.

The role of taxation is wealth redistribution.It takes money from those who have and uses it to social advantages in building schools, hospitals,and libraries, or in local projects for local people. So taxation, whilst nobody wants to participate, is essential for the social cohesion!;tax is the glue that joins us all in our communities.Those who can pay tax, but avoid it are guilty of indirectly destroying social fabric. Taxing the poor on the premise that their are more of them is socially unjust . Like the graffiti artists or the looters, tax avoiders are the real 'feral underclass' (to use a recently coined phrase).
Tax is like death, natural and unavoidable. When companies or individuals leave countries to seek 'better tax conditions' it signals the need for a global taxation approach. Companies that threaten to leave due to tax burdens are really saying that they choose another society, or that they want the benefits of society but not the responsibilities.
An adult vision of tax would be really welcome.Money is just a tool. Governments that promise less tax should be greeted with skepticism at best and disbelief at most. Less tax for who? And less tax why? Are two questions that should immediately spring to mind. Countries that have a sovereign debt crisis shouldn't be offering anyone tax breaks, rather the opposite. Wee have to get the money back .
Recently , millionaires have said 'they are willing to pay more tax'.But this just begs the question, why now, (publicity)and why are they millionaires in the first place?(they didn't pay enough tax in the past).

A tax rate to squeeze the rich is now inevitable, but at the moment the tax system squeezes the middle and the poor more. A political party ready to accept the consequences of this is now really urgently needed.

Comment on Watts up with that

2010-12-20T04:43:00.000-08:00

This blog is a comment on

http://wattsupwiththat.com/2010/12/20/a-dalton-minimum-repeat-is-shaping-up/#more-29779, todays turn up from Watts up with that.

Well, if you really want to compare with the Dalton minimum, isn't it really essential to use data from that period? And compare that data set with the current one? Yet Archibald ends with data sets ranging from 1976, 1966,1930,2006 and then tries to connect it to 1776-1820 ish. Without using and raw data from 1776-1820 other than sunspot observations. Am I the only one who thinks this a bit strange?
What's needed is a flux measure for those dates in the Dalton or at worst a proxy from ice core data.Then you can compare.

Go back to the data and try again before making predictions based on what at best could be described as a dodgy data set.

This kind of science really gets me because I think that Archibald may have a valid point but it's rather blunted because the scientific argument isn't cutting enough, if you'll excuse the mixed metaphore.

Look at this data set, it goes back 11,000 years, until 50 years before now.
ftp://ftp.ncdc.noaa.gov/pub/data/paleo/climate_forcing/solar_variability/solanki2004-ssn.txt

Then add the observations made from 1955 until 2010 (using raw data )and then , perhaps then you'll get an interesting graph. Perhaps one could comment that proxies aren't as reliable as the 10,7 flux raw data, but it's the best we've got.And that mixing the two data sets is also dodgy. But hey,lets do it any way.

look here
http://cc.oulu.fi/%7Eusoskin/personal/nature02995.pdf
or here
http://www.mps.mpg.de/dokumente/publikationen/solanki/j215.pdf

Run the data through PAST http://www.nhm.uio.no/norges/past/download.html
and paste your graph and hey presto, then, perhaps then you've got data you can compare. Then you could look for similarities with the rider 'the past doesn't guarantee the present'

Basically the current argument runs like 'its a Dalton rerun because I say so, because I predicted it'( based on data you can't take seriously), and that's just not good enough.

You also forget that most of the Dalton cooling was volcanic, go check the sulphate core records (http://climate.envsci.rutgers.edu/IVI2/) and compare them for the time span you want to consider . It's not enough to wag your finger and say 'Ah but solar minimum causes volcanic eruptions because there is a correlation'. Go prove it.Correlation doesn't mean cause.

I spend my days telling students how important it is to respect the scientific method, but sometimes when I see this kind of argument, it just looks like pseudoscience. Intreresting, though provoking, bloggable ,but ultimatly dismissable because it lacks vigour.

There's no null hypothesis, no paper, no findings, no evidence, no method.

Depressingly ,everything here can and will be dismissed, and really that's a shame because we really need to keep an open mind.

Coldest Winter for 1000 years

2010-10-13T05:32:00.000-07:00

Last winter, 2009-2010 was the coldest for 30 years, but the coming winter will make that look like a walk in the park
Why?
Well several reasons.The first that my prediction of a de Vries event http://dreamofthought.blogspot.com/2010/09/winter-2009-2010.html (on this very blog!) looks like it will come true and the second is that the gulf stream was damaged buy the GOM disaster and is slowing down.
The third is that a Bond event is also due, and that will happen over the next five to twenty years.
the cycles all join up.(http://chiefio.wordpress.com/2009/04/06/bond-event-zero/)
The next problem is the vast volcanic activity seen in 2010 which adds up to lots of aerosols in the atmosphere, and we've not seen the end of the volcanic activity, with many big volcanoes seemingly ramping up. If we get a big eruption then a volcanic winter could well be a possibility.
The other big factor is the Sun which is very quiet and unusually so.This is a big problem as its the Sun which modulates our climate to the largests extent and not Carbon dioxide.
the transition will be quick now, and we'll move towards perhaps decades of hot, dry short winters and cold, windy bitter long winters. Food shortages, famine, flooding,etc.
Climate changes quickly, as discussed here
http://geoweb.princeton.edu/people/sigman/paperpdfs/Brauer08.pdf

time to order a non grid warming solution.

haitian thoughts

2010-09-08T00:09:00.000-07:00

I recently visited this country to adopt a little boy with my wife and we noted that misery had a name and the name was Haiti. Before the earthquake which struck on the 13th, the country and its people already had their backs to the wall. Water and electricity and food were luxury products. I saw shanty towns and roads like ravines, buildings damaged from four hurricanes.After the quake, the unimaginable becomes true. A million people live in Port au prince and it's estimated that 100 thousand are dead from the earthquake alone.Now there is no clean water and typhus, cholera and other water borne diseases such as gastroenteritis and diarrhea will strike and an already weak population. More will die in the aftermath of this disaster than directly.

1 million people are now homeless in the island. They had little before, now they have literally nothing. 70 % plus unemployment, 76% survive on less than 2 dollars per day US.That was before. even the presidential palace in all its splendor is a pile of rubble.Almost all multi story building are down. We have friends who got the last plane out before the quake. Lucky them.

The hospital has collapsed, there is no water or electricity, no lifting equipment , no fire brigade or ambulance, no doctors or medicine,no surgeons or nurses, no food, no toilet facilities,people lay with terrible injuries and die.In the streets.in the open air.They die like dogs.

I managed to contact the crèche. All the children are thank god, well. but the building has disappeared into rubble.The quake struck just after their afternoon nap and thank God for that, .Some crèches are just disaster zones, full of dead or dying children.

What can you do? Give your money/time/equipment/spare clothes/bricks and mortar to a reputable cause, such as the red cross or medicines sans frontiers.

The immediate need is survival. After they need to rebuild, better and with pride.Teach them how. Help them now.

Evry dollar saves a life. Give what you can, and remember. Perhaps the quake will wake up people to the plight of Haiti. Its a shame it took such a cost, such a price for people to see.. A beautiful country a beautiful people. Perhaps they can start from nothing.But what a cost.What a price.

imagine your city, and a disaster that kills 10% of the population. And makes many many more homeless.

1 million live in port au prince and 100 thousand are dead, and probably 100,00 more will die from the disease and after the quake. 500 thousand may be homeless.They need your help.

Already people are looting and this has to stop.The UN has now to send in more troops, to help control a dire situation.We need to get equipment there as quickly as possible.There can be no strings attached and no under the table deals.The time is now for a new Haiti.

here is a link to help those who can give

http://thelede.blogs.nytimes.com/2010/01/13/haiti-disaster-relief-how-to-contribute/

There are many charities here, give and give and give. Remember, you are rich in compaarison to them. I've given what I can and next month I'll give more.

This disaster won't stop now.

Our prayer.

We pray for the Haitian people, and for those who have been touched by this disaster, for those who have lost loved ones, or have no news, we pray to our God and ask for his hand. We pray that people will be generous and touched.We pray that change starts with people now.

Do the same with your God(s) please

Prayers aren't enough. Imagine the worst and multiply it by ten.

The lost elephant

2010-09-08T00:06:00.000-07:00

The lost Elephant. A story for children. By Richard Jenkins

Once upon a time there was an elephant. His name was...

In fact he didn't know his name!This was because he was The Lost Elephant

Where he lived, in the jungle, he was contented,but he had a lot of questions.The other elephants he saw didn't speak his language, or they didn't know it.

So he began to feel sad.

Poor elephant.

One day, he went to find the answers.

On the way, there were many scary trees, frightening and strange.

Sometimes he was afraid, but he was a brave elephant, and very curious too.

Even when he thought that he could see monsters or nasties, he continued, looking for himself.

He wasn't too scared because he was big and strong, and he could make a lot of noise with his trunk.This gave him comfort. All the birds in the trees flew away whenever he trumpeted, and this made him laugh.

One day a bird asked him "why do you make such a noise?"

"We are kind and we can show you the way to get out of the forest."

The elephant thought about this.

He had made the noise because he was scared. If he followed te birds,he could get out of the forest. Perhaps he could find his name, or even his family.

So he explained to the birds and said he was sorry.The birds showed him the way to the savannah.He had found some new friends.

Once he was outside of the forest, the elephant felt much better. He thanked the birds by singing, and the birds called him 'Softly' because his song was so softly sung.

The elephant had a name! Softly! and he had some friends too.

Softly was a bit lost , but happily he was in the savannah. He hid in the long grass and waited.Suddenly, he saw another elephant, a very beautiful elephant.Together, they continued along the path.

Finally, he had a name, and a family and some friends!he had found out some of the answers and found some of himself too. Together with the birds, they went to find their destinies.

THE END

» posted in Rickj's Blog

The crab and the tide

2010-09-07T23:44:00.002-07:00

The crab and the tide. A story for children. By Richard Jenkins

Once there was a crab who lived on a sandy beach.

The beach was nice and the crab liked his patch of the beach.

The crab lived by eating small creatures and sea weed, which he found by scuttling around his patch

The crab could see the ocean from the beach, and every day when the tide came in, the crab would paddle and wash, splash and play. He never ventured into the deep water as he didn't know if he could swim, or how far he could swim, or even how big the ocean was.

Every now and then, a very big tide , called a spring tide, would come in and leave debris, flotsam and jetsum would appear on the sea and on the beach.

The crab would explore the new treasures.

The tide would also be small from time to time, a neap tide.The crab would go up and down the beach, like a yo-yo.

One day, a very big tide came and the crab had nowhere to go, so big was the tide.

He had to try to swim in the deep sea. He found that after a bit of practice and some scary moments that he could swim quite well, and even very well after more practice.It was scary and tiring, but he managed to swim until he found a big rock.

He climbed up and rested and pondered. All along he could swim, and even if he still didn't know how big the ocean was, he had found a new belief and a new skill.

The crab was happy, but careful. He swam back to the beach and carried on living amongst the sand and off what the sea brought.

Every now and then, the crab would go exploring, but he always prepared himself and he never went too far. The ocean was big and dangerous, and the beach was safe. The crab liked the thrill of the ocean and the safety of the beach.

The crab lived out the rest of his days like this. He never did find how big the ocean was, but at least he explored it.

The end

Horizontal writing

2010-09-07T23:44:00.001-07:00

Can we see what we do, or do we just chase gold ?

Comfy in our little zone, or do we see the cold ?

Watching death around our patch, like some weird cartoon ;

Hoping that it doesn’t come, at least not very soon.

Miles away from agony, until it hits the screen.

Then only for a moment, then we’ve overseen.

Our minds are touched, but then we’re bored,

Or scared and so we zap the ghastly gore.

Armchair witnesses of the world, aloof from reality

All that’s left to understand the answer is just ourselves maybe

Untroubled by the pain , we’re far away, but TV close.

Internet connected, a click away, to post ideas online

The world’s an expert , shed a tear, spread some fear,

« It’s terrible », « don’t you know » « we’re powerless »

But change starts internally, not government or policy

I watch the smoke from chimney stacks

Its hot cloud waft of wasted heat

Would fill the pens of a thousand hacks

And almost never fill the sheet

They drift up , then left, then right,then back

Which way to go, the wind decides

Just like us, the clouds they lack

Any substance and all the facts

Where we go, and what we say

Corporations organise governments thus

We don’t decide our life each day

Democracy is just passive lush

We have ,no plans, no vision , no belief nor ideas ,

Just make a profit ,make a margin

People don’t matter,or countries, that’s clear ?

Got to cross the line first if you want to win.

Throw them to the wolves or drag

Ideas to divert them from the scent

Tell them that the debate is deep

Keep them numb and well meant

Gaze into the belly-button,gaze into the hole

And all you’ll see is fluff,fluff,fluff

Questions empty with meaning and ideas stole

Away from keepers then twisted so enough

That in the false light of the media they seem so beautiful

But on closer inspection they are just shallow

Imagination has it’s boundary, fearful

Ideas already proven empty and hollow

Come back again to spoil our route

The reason forgotten in the thrust

Of communication when we are mute

And policies which are just unjust

The pathway is chosen to our minds

By companies whose choice is cost

Price but not as the consequence unwinds

And the rest is sacrificed to frost

So in the end we wait for change-but passive us

Act now and take control of you

Destiny’s path is self made stuff

Show the people what to do.

Crawl through all the thick and dross

Fight the path to freedom’s truth

Lips are dry from bitter dust

And hopes are spent from wasted youth

We don’t question what we buy

Nor its production place today

The lowest wages question why ?

The little children’s bleeding hands

Made in somewhere else today

The cost of production here’s to high

In low cost countries profits pay

With low aspirations, respect will die

The mystery is why such guiltless tranquillity

The ticking clock of all our lives

The effortless switch of history

The chance to spin eternal lies

« We want to win the war » they said

But in its wake there was the blood

And every drop was shyly shed

And every hope was in the mud

They came back home draped in a flag

Silently they passed through streets of shame

No really gave a fag

And no-one really took the blame

They fought for what ? For History’s fame ?

The pages of the books repeat

All that’s left is all that remains

Forgotten again, till death they meet.

Soldiers, wasted, like school boy’s games

Lined up inside the playground of their minds

And each battalion are just toys

And all the lives are just white lines.

Crosses on the empty fields

With only sorrow for a bride

Wage war against the clinging weeds

When tomorrow claims its pride

We fight ourselves with bitter breath

And cut our very souls with spite

When into battle our shields,our wealth

Go avidly , the cause of might

Victims of ourselves we are

The crumbled leaves in debris town

The hunger of the innocent by far

Was caused by greed’s renown

They pray and hope for peace inside

Tranquil temples of their minds

Deaf to begging’s desperate tides

Blind to reality’s simple signs

We want peace ?We want war ?

We want change ?We want the same ?

We want what ?Just more and more ?

We want calm ?We want shame ?

We need to step back and t say

Where the line lies in the sand

From being free and giving way

To take up responsibility’s stand

Fight no more ! Tire ye not !

Against aggression fear and pain

The finger slips and not a jot

Of difference there was to gain

Empty gestures in the end

They joined up and knew the price

Back in boxes, empty hands

Empty bodies , freedom’s dice

So we plan for another way

But naive are those who think it so

Doomed to greed, to war, to say

The same message spat from long ago

Larkin’s man is alive and well

With misery in every bowl

Pass around famine’s gruel

Hand on the pain, remove the soul

Throw the dust back to the earth

And give back pain and helplessness

Don’t expect any love or truth

From lips blistered by forgetfulness

The soldiers path is cracked and dry

The battle has been fought and lost

The flags bare and tattered lie

The bodies broken count the cost

All youth is doomed, its anthem sung

Cut down as poplars in Hopkin’s wake

War is lost, the game begun

Stuttering steps , which road to take ?

On paper full of promises

The signatures were scratched

But signed with pens and not with hearts

The charter was half hatched

Into dry dust, forgotten there

In some backwater of a place

Where no one remembers where

Forgotten, lost without a trace

Administration’s machine it turns

The laws like sausages produced

The taste perhaps, for it some yearn ?

But listen to the instrument’s sound

They play what tune ?What sound is that ?

I’ve heard it somewhere else I’m sure

The public though,sleeps like a cat

And History was ‘just before’

We change and change and change again

We haven’t any clue

What medicine to take today ?

Or shall we sniff some glue ?

Like hamsters in our little cage

We run around the wheel

Watching life’s empty page

While eating the last meal.

Children’s eyes, desiring seek

A meal to calm the gnawing pain

Every minute of every week

The children ask « What’s to gain ? »

We seek revenge for past wrongs

Passed on to us by long dead foes

Holding the hate for too long

It burns us with its fiery coals

Burn up, burn out, burn wide our hate

Burn deep, burn deep inside

The flames around every heart

Are pumped by bellows wide.

Reasons to kill someone, today will be supplied

Like some strange instruction delivered in the night

The meanings clear, just take a look inside

Join up the screws, and bolts and join the fight.

When terrorists hate so much

They kill themselves to kill us

With breast implants full of death

The breast gives life, not sour milk

What war we fight is for us to chose

The war against ourselves

To change our lives and others too

The future on it depends

There isn’t any hope today

Give up and go to bed

In your dreams the truth is said

But in the light we lose the way

Enough ! Enough ! There isn't more.

I haven’t any strength

To go to battle or to war

Or to fix the fence

What dreams are these ? Deep down inside

Nothing ever grows

Except futility’s poison pool besides

Hoplessness’ claws.

Winter 2009-2010

2010-09-07T23:42:00.001-07:00

This winter has been one of the hardest and longest and coldest and snowiest for a long time.However, there doesn't seem to be any snow in Vancouver for the Winter olympic games which start this weekend.

Such is weather, such is climate.

The fact that this winter is a hemisphere wide event, and the cold and snow has been felt from Vladivostock to Aberdeen, one might ask some questions.

Winter normally is a hemisphere event, but not normally so long,cold or snowy.

Only last yuear we were talking about an exceptional winter, and then this winter comes along and is colder, snowier and longer.

Last winter, in my garden the minimum was a chilly -18°c according to my thermometer, (which isn't inside a Stephanson screen) for one very cold afternoon/evening.

This year , in the same spot, same thermometer, I've seen -13 all day and -10 for a week, i.e not seeing positive temperatures all week!

Ok, its not so scientific, but it sure is cold.

A De Vries cycle (or Suess cycle) is more or less due and perhaps we'll see this, but who would dare predict it! This cycle coumes round evey 210 ish years and is a cooling cycle

this is discussed here

http://www.wsl.ch/staff/jan.esper/publications/Raspopov_2008_PPP.pdf

What's even more worrying is that another cycle, called the Bond cycle is also more or less due.This is also a cooling cycle.This cycle comes around avery 1400ish years.

If the two do happen close to each other, we could well see a cooling.Also worthy of note are the predictions of lower solar activity , which would also have a climatic impact .

We'll have to wait and see!

Winters will perhaps become ' real winters' again.

http://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/paleo/pubs/solanki2004/

http://www.pbs.org/wgbh/warming/stories/

http://www.pubmedcentral.nih.gov/picrender.fcgi?artid=1691926&blobtype=pdf

techtonic activity 2010

2010-09-07T23:39:00.000-07:00

Although this year seems to be an average year for earthquakes, they do seem to be large and frequent.
I'm a bit worried about the swarm under Yellowstone and the recent quake at lake Toba, both of which are supervolcanoes.
If they go off, it's bad news.That and the fissure in Iceland, which produces lots of florine salts, which are toxic. Long silent volcanoes produce the most catastrophic eruptions, so look at Germany and France too.
In a solar minimum, techtonic activity does increase.
I'll keep a look out for new activity around the next full moon.

What odds "the big one" in the USA?

update

Well, so far this year there have been more than average volcanic eruptions and earthquakes, but the full moon a few days ago didn't produce any major events

2009-06-12T12:45:00.000-07:00

Tigger, My cat.
Tigger has been 'relocated' from that position to another, six feet lower.

Sunspots for the last 10,000 years and more

2008-10-05T08:45:00.001-07:00

Above is a Morlet continous wave transformation for sunspots . Another can be seen here http://wattsupwiththat.files.wordpress.com/2008/09/wavelet_ssn.png
Time is read along the horizontal axis, and a time scale is drawn across the top of the image. Frequency is read on the verticle axis. The scale is 2**x months, where is is 1,2,3..9. So 2**7 is 128 months. Amplitude is indicated by color. The basic 11 year Schwabe cycle is clearly indicated by the red ovals bisected by the line for 11 years. I’ve noted the Dalton Minimum, which is clearly different in character than the other cycles — with weaker and longer solar cycles. It is subtle, but you can see the weaker intensity of solar cycles 10-15 compared to solar cycles 16-23 in the weaker color of the earlier cycles. There is clearly enhanced activity, and of longer duration, at the end of the 20th century.
There is also a weaker, but distinct, level of activity at 22 years, the double sunspot of Hale cycle. The last three Hale cycles have been stronger than earlier Hale cycles. There is some indication of a double Hale cycle (~44 years) and at the top of the graph, we’re in Gleissberg cycle territory.
Now, for an interesting observation and speculation, note that at present, which is at the right edge of the chart, from the 11 yr line to the top it is all blue. There is only one other place on the entire chart where we can draw a vertical line from the 11 yr line to the top without it crossing some portion of color other than blue. Can you find it? (It is right at the beginning of Solar Cycle 5, i.e. the Dalton Minimum). Are we watching the beginning of a new 200 year cycle like what began with the Dalton Minimum in the early 1800’s? Obviously, no one knows. But the current transition is certainly unusual, and invites comparison to past transitions.

BELOW
This is a Morlet continous wave transformation for sunspots for the last
11405 years.
This is the data set used to produce the wavelet.
from
Solanki, S.K., I.G. Usoskin, B. Kromer, M. Schüssler and J. Beer. 2004. An unusually active Sun during recent decades compared to the previous 11,000 years. Nature, Vol. 431, No. 7012, pp.1084-1087, 28 October 2004.

ftp://ftp.ncdc.noaa.gov/pub/data/paleo/climate_forcing/solar_variability/solanki2004-ssn.txt

The diagram above is for the data set here
ftp://ftp.ngdc.noaa.gov/STP/SOLAR_DATA/SUNSPOT_NUMBERS/MONTHLY.PLT

This data appeared at http://wattsupwiththat.com/2008/09/22/new-cycle-24-sunspot/ and It's thanks to Basil (I only know his tag) that I managed to figure it out. I used the PAST programme to do so.

What does it show? Time is on the Horizontal axis and intensity on the vertical one. Well the ice age looks good.... Nice and blue. (between 240 and 600?) Compare it to The Dalton minimum which is clearly visible on the top graph.

Comments please?

Finance

2008-10-01T07:23:00.000-07:00

This is a subject I'll freely admit to knowing absolutely knothing about.

It doesn't seem fair for governments to pay for the mistakes or traders.When people invest, they take the risk of winning or loosing.When I lose on the horse, I know it was a risk. It's the same with stocks and shares.They go up or down, and a certain profit or 15% return is, frankly, unreal. Investors need to be reminded that an investment may not give a return.
I don't know what to do about the current financial crisis. Perhaps a 'world tax' of ten percent needs to raised on all those who choose to live in one country per month, a different one every month to avoid taxes, or those who try to avoid tax.
No one likes to pay tax, but it is a normal thing to do. So I say to those who try to avoid taxes, beware, as governments will try to get what they think they are owed.

I'm not sure 700 billion dollars is enough and it is perhaps throwing good money after bad.I had the thought yesterday that Liverpool fc are sponsered by the US government and Newcastle united by the British government and that can't be a good use of taxation.

One year ago there was ten times as much money on the global markets than actually existed. it was a problem waiting to happen due to lack of liquidity and if it gets better short term, long term is not so sure . Unemployment is the spectre that haunts us, and recession is its wailing banshee, and inflation its ball and chains.

The show is up and its time now to find a new financial paradigm as this one is over.

A mixed social economy is the way forward.

I read about "trillions of dollars" and if you could count 1 dollar per second, it would take you over 3800 years to count a trillion.
If you laid one dollar bills end to end, you could make a chain that stretches from earth to the moon and back again 200 times before you ran out of dollar bills! One trillion dollars would stretch nearly from the earth to the sun. It would take a military jet flying at the speed of sound, reeling out a roll of dollar bills behind it, 14 years before it reeled out one trillion dollar bills.

The U.S. Federal Government collected $2,568 billion in fiscal year 2007, while spending $2,730 billion, generating a total deficit of $162 billion.
If america agrees, not only would the legislation increase the national debt to $11.3 trillion, it would leave one man in charge with absolutely no oversight.

By the way, private American debt is an amazing 37 Trillion.

Households in the UK owe a total of £1.4 trillion to banks and building societies. More than £225 billion has been piled on to credit cards and personal loans while the remainder has been spent on bricks and mortar, the Bank of England says. Even the start of the credit crunch last year was not enough to stem the credit binge. Credit card borrowing rose by 1.25 per cent last year, while mortgage borrowing rose 10.8 per cent, figures from Experian, the credit reference agency, show. Insolvences hit a high and things don't look like they will get better any time soon.

This of course was all shown around 2005
http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/business/4209527.stm

things look bad http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/business/7644238.stm

That shows 700 billion compared with the 14 thousand billion us gdp.

By the way, where is plan "b"?

The existentialist view point or Pythagorean philosophy.

2008-09-29T10:37:00.001-07:00

Existentialism essentially reflects the crisis of a superficial world view world view and a belief in progressive development of a society inherent in liberalism, which gave way under the pressure of the last turbulent century. Having emerged as a pessimistic world view, existentialism tried to answer the question "How should a human live after the liberal illusions have been shattered by historical disasters."
Existentialism is a reaction to the rationalism of the enlightenment and classical German philosophy to Kantian ism and positivism which was widespread at the turn of the century.Existentialists maintain that rational thought has the existential feature of proceeding from the principle of antithesis of subject and object.As a result the rationalist considers all reality, including humans, only as an object of investigation and practical manipulation and resultantly have an 'impersonal' approach. Therefore existential thought is an antithesis to impersonal scientific thought.
So philosophy was set against science by the existentialists. Heidegger believed that the subject of philosophy is "being" whilst that of science is "existing". "Existing" belongs to the empirical world, and should not be confused with "being". What is "Being"? Being is comprehended by humans not through rational thinking, but directly through personal experience.The existent therefore incarnates the unbreakable unity of object and subject and this cannot be comprehended by either rational scientific thinking nor by speculative thinking.In everyday life, Humans are not always aware of themselves as existing, for this they must find border line situations, for example facing death.

When they have realised themselves as existing, humans gain freedom for the first time. Freedom in existential thought means that humans should not be a thing which is shaped under the influence of natural or social necessity, but they should mould themselves by their every act and deed. Thus free humans take responsibility for what they have done and do not try to justify themselves by 'circumstances'. Sense of guilt for what is going on around them is the sense of a true human. (Berdyagev). So freedom essential reflects a protests against conformism and time serving typical of a philistine who believes that as a servant in the gigantic bureaucratic machine they are unable to change anything in the chain of events. This is why A.S. Neill's 'Summerhill' is so interesting as an educational establishment.

So indeed this is why existentialists believe humans must be held responsible for everything that occurs in history.This explanation of freedom is subjective as it discusses freedom on a purely ethical basis and not on a social plane.
Existentialism offers a method of immediate intuitive cognition of reality, based mainly on Husserl's theory and partially on Bergson's intuition ism. Existentialists such as Marcel, Camus and Heidegger in his later thought believed that by its very method of cognition, Philosophy is closer to art than to science.Existential thought exerted a profound influence on Western literature and arts, creating the differing social and political views held by various groups of existentialists.

The Pythagorean were followers of the Greek philosopher Pythagoras of Samos (Circa 580 to 500 BC) . this school had and still has a great influence, making valuable contributions to the development of astronomy, mathematics and music. However, by absolutising abstract quality and divorcing it from material objects, the Pythagorean developed the conclusion that quantitative relations constitute the essence of things.This gave rise to the Pythagorean mathematical symbolism and mysticism of numbers, which was full of superstitions and combined with Pythagorean's faith in the soul's transmigration.
It is tempting to dismiss most of Pythagorean thought as mere fantasy, but they offer a key to the understanding of a powerful current of intellect and emotions.Influencing Plato and Aristotle, this school was the first to develop mathematics as an abstract deductive science.Thinking everything was number,they perceived the relations and laws of musical harmony in number and number formed everything in nature.The elements of number were the elements of everything and the entire cosmos is harmony and number.However, in discovering right angle triangle laws, they proved that when the legs of a right angles triangle are of the same length there is no common unit of measure of which the legs and hypotenuse are integral multiples.Therefore, the hypotenuse is imcommensurable with the legs. A conflict of the creed of "the cosmos is harmony and number"The logical empiricist philosophy of the Pythagoreans is a stark contrast to that of the new image of science expounded by the Existentialists.What they both deal with are the two central problems of the theory of knowledge, namely meaning and truth.In Hume's 'treatise of human nature', Hume develops the problems of the empirical approach by developing threefold distinctions between language, ideas and expression. "All perceptions of the mind resolve themselves into two kinds, Impressions and Ideas"

Impressions are the immediate objects of awareness when we perceive or introspect. Ideas are objects we become aware of in our mental activities other than introspection and perception.When we reflect,remember,imagine and create, essentially we are distinguishing between simple and complex ideas.
The history of science is not so anarchistic as Feyerbend would have us believe. It is not constituted of bare facts. Science holds no bare facts, but facts which enter into knowledge and are therefore ideational. Paradigms become dis proven or proven, changed or altered, evolved into new ones.
What therefore, is order?
The question of order clearly goes beyond the confines of science.Order though, plays an incalculably significant role in the totality of human thought and action.When ideas change in a fundamental way, they tend to produce a radical change to society and this reaches into every area of life.Radically new ideas are generally incommensurable with what went before.
Society is left with a crisis that encompasses and all one once believed in is now judged irrelevant, improper or even immoral.
Order is neither solely object nor subject, but in both.It can be seen to lie between orders of a low degree and chaotic orders of an infinite degree of which randomness is a limit.Indeed there is no place for the concept of disorder, only randomness. A randomness of orders of an infinite degree that are free from significant correlations and suborders of low degree. Structure is an inherently dynamic notion and is comprehended through a hierarchy of ratio, which may be apprehended in a perceptive act of intuitive reason.
Sequential order gives way to generative order, in the world of fractals.The creation and creative perception of nature.Investigating implicate order , we find super implicate order,which organises lower ones whilst being affected by them. In this way implicate order is in fact a subtle generative order. Consciousness is a generative and implicate order and mind and matter are related because these orders for the grounds of all experience. Science, nature , society and consciousness for an overall generative order.Because of "being" there is order, because of order there is the cosmos, because of order there is chaos.

The existentialist view point

2008-09-29T10:37:00.000-07:00

Sunspots sunspots, sunspots

2008-09-27T09:48:00.000-07:00

The sunspots come, the sunspots go.
the picture from
http://wattsupwiththat.com/2008/09/22/new-cycle-24-sunspot/
Shows we're in a blue period.

ftp://ftp.ngdc.noaa.gov/STP/SOLAR_DATA/SUNSPOT_NUMBERS/MONTHLY

ftp://ftp.ngdc.noaa.gov/STP/SOLAR_DATA/SUNSPOT_NUMBERS/SMOOTHED.PLT

This shows 1954 being a lower year than 2007, after that,
we go back to 1933, 1934 and then 1923

These figures show some patterns.
At the moment we have been below 23
spots for 36 months
and the last time we saw this was in
when 45 months were below 23,
from January 1931 until February 1935
We had 50 months like this from November
 1910 until December 1914
And from January 1807 until January 1815.
The big data set that hits me is from March
1790 until August  1835
with no figures above 100.

http://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/paleo/pubs/solanki2004/fig3a.jpg

The image shows some analysis, and look at the blue....
This worries me now,
given the short life span of current sunspots.

Are e heading for a 'super minima'?
I think what happens all depends
on the next maximum. If it's weak,
it's going get cold.

The sickness of sport

2008-09-22T09:25:00.000-07:00

Sport is sick. Its not about winning or loosing anymore, its about money. Well, that and winning.Because a winner brings money (or perhaps sportsmen are paid to throw matches for betting scandals?)
Sport isn't about individual pride anymore, or team pride, or national pride. Its just Money.
Things I'd do.
1) Make every winner stand to attention to the Olympic anthem and flag. Not the flag/anthem of their nation.
2) Put an earnings cap on to any player (and include sponsorship and ads in the cap) of 1 Million us dollars per year. That seems enough. Hell, I'd love to earn that per year, wouldn't you.
And I slog my guts out 8 hours plus per day. So none of that namby pamby 'they could break a leg tomorrow', because so could I. Besides, most top sports people go on into the media and earn a lot there too. Most top sports men and women have a career after sports.
3) Make top sportsmen and women pay some money back into the grass roots of their sports, or support those sportsmen less able/disabled/injured/ and thier families. That's the definition of 'fair play'

Telling me that 'its a free market and they can earn what they like' just doesn't cut the mustard as the same applies to us all, and we sure as hell cant demand what we like from our boss, regardless of if we think we deserve it or our respective talents.
Sport. The weathy and beautiful (well except Wayne Rooney) play for the spectators (poor and ugly).
It really gets me that those sportmen and their girlfriends can spend 2 million on a new second home but the proles have to slog there guts out for 30 years for a house 1/20th of the value. Tax them more.

Against Dogma

2008-09-20T08:36:00.000-07:00

From 'Knowledge or Certainty" an episode of 'the ascent of man' by Dr. J. Bronowski

"The Principle of Uncertainty is a bad name. In science--or outside of it--we are not uncertain; our knowledge is merely confined, within a certain tolerance. We should call it the Principle of Tolerance. And I propose that name in two senses: First, in the engineering sense--science has progressed, step by step, the most successful enterprise in the ascent of man, because it has understood that the exchange of information between man and nature, and man and man, can only take place with a certain tolerance.

But second, I also use the word, passionately, about the real world. All knowledge--all information between human beings--can only be exchanged within a play of tolerance. And that is true whether the exchange is in science, or in literature, or in religion, or in politics, or in *any* form of thought that aspires to dogma. It's a major tragedy of my lifetime and yours that scientists were refining, to the most exquisite precision, the Principle of Tolerance--and turning their backs on the fact that all around them, tolerance was crashing to the ground beyond repair.

The Principle of Uncertainty or, in my phrase, the Principle of Tolerance, fixed once for all the realization that all knowledge is limited. It is an irony of history that at the very time when this was being worked out there should rise, under Hitler in Germany and other tyrants elsewhere, a counter-conception: a principle of monstrous certainty. When the future looks back on the 1930s it will think of them as a crucial confrontation of culture as I have been expounding it, the ascent of man, against the throwback to the despots' belief that they have absolute certainty.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=8mIfatdNqBA

It is said that science will dehumanize people and turn them into numbers. That is false: tragically false. Look for yourself. This is the concentration camp and crematorium at Auschwitz. *This* is where people were turned into numbers. Into this pond were flushed the ashes of four million people. And that was not done by gas. It was done by arrogance. It was done by dogma. It was done by ignorance. When people believe that they have absolute knowledge, with no test in reality--this is how they behave. This is what men do when they aspire to the knowledge of gods.

Science is a very human form of knowledge. We are always at the brink of the known; we always feel forward for what is to be hoped. Every judgment in science stands on the edge or error, and is personal. Science is a tribute to what we *can* know although we are fallible. In the end, the words were said by Oliver Cromwell: "I beseech you, in the bowels of Christ: Think it possible you may be mistaken."

We have to cure ourselves of the itch for absolute knowledge and power. We have to close the distance between the push-button order and the human act. We have to *touch people*."

'WE CANNOT HOPE to match the total complexity of nature any more precisely than a language matches the complexity of social life. The answer to the polite enquiry "How are you?" is not a medical bulletin. And the answer to the scientific enquiry "How are atoms of carbon made?" is not a full analysis of the mind of the Almighty. There is a tolerant give and take in the reply that we make to questions about our health; and there is the same give and take, an essential intolerance, in the sentences that we can frame to picture the improbable generation of the carbon atom. A single experiment can be described in a bulletin; but the grand processes of nature cannot be sketched without the ambiguity which dogs all language. Science would come to a standstill if every ambiguity were resolved, for there would be nothing left to discover. It is this which makes it more vivid and more enlightening to call science a language for the machinery of nature and not an engineering drawing.'

from Carl Sagan's 'Cosmos'

Every one of us is precious in the cosmic perspective. If a human disagrees with you, let him live. In a hundred billion galaxies, you will not find another.

History is full of people who out of fear, or ignorance, or lust for power have destroyed knowledge of immeasurable value which truly belongs to us all. We must not let it happen again

My view.
Bronowski was a genius. His series 'The ascent of man' is well worth a look, really ringing home some very interesting points. I've seen almost all this series, and every episode is like a carefully crafted gem. It's taken me a year to watch, and I feel humbled.

Science is never 'the final discovery' as if we discover everything, there will be nothing left to discover. the debate over global warming shows the real dogma of people saying it's real or it's not; the fact is, both are right , the globe cools and warms, as iceages and warm periods show from ice cores.
It isn't a question anymore of 'what is correct', just a question of 'what is probable'

Poems and novels

2008-09-14T01:45:00.000-07:00

Seagulls by Dobbin

Seagulls too, follow my tiller,
Above the naked, bleeding earth,
Ochre rich the soil is open, needing,
Seeds to fill the hollow ground.

Come and see the seagulls,
Come and see them overhead,
Watch the seagulls towards my tiller,
See the bounty of the earth.
We who wait and wonder why,
Stop the seagulls swooping seawards,
Bury the bleeding battered soil beneath.

And, all is always, angry,
Seagulls never help you lift the load.

Seagulls too, follow my tiller,
See the seagulls circling, swooping,
Whilst the plough breaks the icy earth,
As a ship through icy seas,
The frost it hangs onto the iron bows,
Behind me are the Herring gulls.

Seagulls, too follow my farrow,
Feeding off the torrid soil,
All about me there are seagulls,
Circling o’er the ochre earth.
Come and see the seagulls circling,
Come and watch the Herring gulls,
The earth is open, bleeding, naked
Offering up its daily bread.

Come, and see the ploughman pushing.
Come, and watch the beads of sweat.
Watch whilst every aching sinew.
Watch whilst every bead of sweat
See the droplets and their sorrow,
See the windows they reflect,
Watch whist every aching sinew,
Pulls the plough o’er the stony ground.

The sky is crimson, azure in beauty,
Horizon red, and apex blue
Nadir, still the naked soil,
Flocking, still the starving seagulls
We who try will fall and fail.
Feeding seagulls with our flesh.
Never shaking off the seagulls,
Just serving to sustain them instead.

Seagulls too, follow my furrow
Overhead the naked Earth
Laid bare bleeding, opened,
The seed-drill trenches linear and all too narrow,
All around the pastures girth,
Sea the seagulls and their tokens,
See the seagulls and the sea.

Carla Bruni and the power of publicity

2008-09-07T02:55:00.000-07:00

It is my opinion that Carla Bruni is using her position to gain publicity that exceeds that which her talent alone would command. She is 15 in the album sales this week, but she's appearing on French TV in an afternoon show , talking about her meeting with the Dalai Lama (which she only got due to her political connections) whilst those artists above her (Duffy for example) are notably absent from the show.
Cara Bruni.
She got French nationality with a click of her husband's sticky fingers and I had to battle for a year to get it. Hmmm, I wonder why.
That old lie, Liberty, Equality, Fraternity.

Towards a new Maunder minimum, Dalton minimum or just the end of cycle 23?

2008-09-05T02:31:00.000-07:00

I was interested in solar cycles as I thought there may be a link between solar activity and political unrest. I 've been watching the Sun for a while now, and I noticed no sunspots on the sun for a month. Why is the sun so quiet? Well, I'm far from being an expert on the subject and so I did some reading on the net.

What is the Maunder minimum?
http://science.jrank.org/pages/4184/Maunder-Minimum.html
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Maunder_minimum (wiki bulls**t??)

I found a similar blog here
http://wattsupwiththat.wordpress.com/2008/02/13/where-have-all-the-sunspots-gone/
and here
http://theglobalwarmingheretic.wordpress.com/2008/02/16/where-have-all-the-sunspots-gone//

Indeed, very interesting. The result? Icecap growth in the Artic (at a time when Global warming is supposed to be shrinking the ice cap.

http://www.icecap.us/

The results of a Maunder minimum? http://www.kolumbus.fi/tilmari/some200.htm

My theory about political unrest?

http://www.carolmoore.net/articles/sunspot-cycle.html

However, pass a big pinch of salt because

http://www.michaelmandeville.com/earthmonitor/cosmos/solarwind/Sunspot_Cycles_Influence_Human_History.htm

Predicts a recession in 2006 and it's 2008 and we didn't have a recession then , but it looks almost certain now.

Solar cycle 24 officially started, with a big bang ending solar cycle 23, but it seems solar cycle 23 has come back, like a bad penny.

Nasa say its not something unusual,
http://solarscience.msfc.nasa.gov/predict.shtml

And I'll have to admit while trawling the internet I came across all kinds of claims, from 'the Sun's nuclear fuel is running out and it will expand' to 'A new Maunder minimum is certain' (it probably is, but certain when?)

So whats happening?
Well in France, we've had cold and wet summers 2007 and 2008 and if one looks at the data for sunshine hours a peak can be noted in 2005/2006 with a lot less hours this and last year(source meteo France click on http://france.meteofrance.com/fr and click on
ensoleillement) and the last ten years figures for Rennes show this
2008 thus far 1276 (hours of sunshine)
2007 1709
2006 1748
2005 1842
2004 1741
2003 2007(year of heat wave) http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/europe/3156853.stm
2002 1655
2001 1736
2000 1552
1999 1561

This shows an increase from 1999 to 2001, a blip , an increase,a decrease, a blip in fact, it shows not much...

Is the rainfall due to the volcanic eruption earlier this year in Chile?

http://geology.com/events/chaiten-volcano/chaiten-first-eruption-ash-plume-750.jpg
http://edition.cnn.com/2008/WORLD/americas/05/06/chile.volcano/index.html?iref=newssearch

Are we heading for Eighteen hundreed and froze to death version 2?
http://www.mitosyfraudes.org/Calen/Year1816.html
If the sun doesn't produce a spot sometime soon, I think a minimum could be possible.
My prediction?
A cold winter (Really, amazing, winters are usually hot :))

In 1963, the sea froze in northern europe, and the Loire froze at Ancenis

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Winter_of_1963
http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/education/secondary/students/winter.html#coldest

My guess? Colder than that, and then some. or not. Interstingly, cycle 19 ended in 64

http://icecap.us/images/uploads/SOLAR_CYCLE_LENGTH_SUNPSOT_NUMBERS_AND_TEMPERATURES.pdf /SOLAR_CYCLE_LENGTH_SUNPSOT_NUMBERS_AND_TEMPERATURES.pdf

Predctions for the future show that the future is grim(don't they always:))

http://science.nasa.gov/headlines/y2006/10may_longrange.htm

and thats from Nasa.

or is it grim?

http://www.ucar.edu/news/releases/2006/sunspot.shtml

here "The scientists expect the cycle to begin in late 2007 or early 2008, which is about 6 to 12 months later than a cycle would normally start"
And back to wiki again

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Solar_variation#Solar_variation_theory

More ideas here
http://spaceweb.oulu.fi/~kalevi/publications/non-refereed2/ESA_SP477_lostcycle.pdf

and for the history of it all

http://www.oa.uj.edu.pl/~michalec/history.html

Is global warming a myth? Well , human activity is having an effect on the climate, thats sure, but the Sun probably has an effect too.

http://www.global-warming-and-the-climate.com/abrupt-climate-change-action.htm

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Global_cooling

I may or may not agree with the views expressed in the links in this blog.

How does the sun affect human behavoir?

http://sidis.net/Revolution.htm

Is the sun broken? Is this the Gore minimum?

Now I know why we used to worship the sun.

Is this all internet 'g force' or is it real?
What's your opinion?

As for me I think global warming and global cooling both occur, but I don't know why (man?earth's rotation? too many pies? you tell me!)

It's truly amazing the stuff you find on the internet:)

Update (16:08:08) still no sunspots since 20th July and counting. Already Dr David Hathaway from NASA has changed his ideas http://gammaray.nsstc.nasa.gov/colloquia/abstracts_summer06/presentations/Hathaway.pdf on the upcoming solar cycle (and he's the expert). Scientists now predict sunspots could dissapear altogether in 2015....http://wattsupwiththat.wordpress.com/2008/06/02/livingston-and-penn-paper-sunspots-may-vanish-by-2015/ of course all this panic started way back here
http://www.independent.co.uk/news/science/ray-of-hope-can-the-sun-save-us-from-global-warming-762878.html
The sun's been quiet for a long time. I wonder what the link between war and solar cycles is? Another interesting thought?
http://www.prisonplanet.com/dearth-of-sunspot-activity-to-herald-new-ice-age.html
it looks increasingly likely we will have a few cld winters.

This is science at its best. Not dogma, but argument.

Even better is this
http://environment.newscientist.com/article/mg19926734.700-should-naples-fear-a-big-bang-from-vesuvius.html Which predicts a volcanic eruption..... Sulphate aerosol veils and here comes the 'Volcanic winter' In fact, solar minimums can cause increased volcanic activity.http://www.unisci.com/stories/20022/0613022.htm

The amont of CO2 produced by man probably did heat up the world, but the sun's cylce will also affect us, as will volcanoes and other natural disasters.

__________________________________________________________________

UPDATE New sunspot seen today, 22nd September with reversed polarity. looks like its the start of a new solar cycle as it at a high latitude. Ice? What ice age.... Watch this space....

Update 2011
The sun is still fairly slowly coming back to life.Sunspots and solar activity are low , and the sun stillhas problems coming out of the solar slump.The sun slowly comes back to life with flux predictions around 80 proved wrong, as it it now stands at around 100 and will continue to rise.

Welcome to my blog. Bienvenue à bord

2008-09-05T02:24:00.001-07:00

This blog is designed for several purposes.
1) an outlet for my RAGE(only joking:))
2) To discuss various topics , hot or not, be it sport, climate ,politics, knitting, and so on

I hope you enjoy reading and that you take time to respond.
This blog will be written in French and /or English.

Bonjour
Cette blog est pour moi et pour plusier buts
1) pour m'aider à exprimer mon colere( je deconne:))
2) pour parler de tout et rein (le climate, poltique,tricot,sport, etc)
j'espere que vous passes a bonne moment ice, et que vous prennez le temps à repondre, en Anglais ou en Français
Merci
Thank you
Le 5 septembre 2008
The 5th of September 2008